The sales of mortgage loans in the year 2010 will range between PLN 40 – 50 billion, which means that mortgage indebtedness among the population will increase by PLN 20 – 30 billion. Despite temporary perturbations which occurred in 2008 and 2009 and will continue to occur in 2010, the increase trend in the mortgage loan market will prevail at least in the several coming years.

These are some of the conclusions from the latest report “Business and risk in the credit loan market in prospect of the year 2014” prepared by the Gdask Institute for Market Economics and REAS advisory company specializing in residential market issues.

According to professor Leszek Pawlowicz from GIME, „one factor driving the development of the Polish mortgage loan market in the 2-3 coming years will be the liberalization of bank’s credit policy, facilitated by the good capital situation, improved economic perspectives, growing competition and predictions regarding the residential market situation”.

Professor Pawlowicz emphasized that „in the year 2010, the growing competition will result in a further drop of banks’ margins which will probably reach the level of 1.3 – 1.7% (for loans in PLN) for reliable debtors, depending on the LTV and other risk factors”.

The situation in the residential market is one of the key factors influencing the development of the mortgage loan market. Kazimierz Kirejczyk from REAS believes that „the year 2010 may be very unusual in terms of the supply/demand ratio due to the reserve of projects under valid building permits. Large developer companies will be able to fill in the supply gaps smoothly by launching further investments or project stages to the market. If this scenario is realized, the disparity between new supply and sales level should be small, and the market will be close to the state of balance”.

„The currently observed sales boost is to a certain extent caused by facilitated access to mortgage loans which will probably become limited at the end of the year 2010 due to the introduction of the T Recommendation. Consequently, it is still uncertain whether the sales will increase in the fourth quarter of 2010” - added Kirejczyk.